Ndeapi mamiriro ezvinhu aripo epakati uye akaderera mabhizinesi e-lithium pasi pemutengo uri kukwira wezvigadzirwa?

Musi wa10 Kurumeth2022, avhareji yemutengo webhatiri giredhi lithium carbonate yakabudirira kupaza ne500,000 yuan/tani, ichityora 500,000 yuan/tani chiratidzo kekutanga.Metal lithium iri mumazuva maviri apfuura akatevedzana ekutengesa yakasvetuka 100,000 yuan/tani, iye zvino avhareji yemutengo wenzvimbo yakadarika 3.1 miriyoni mamaki.Uye mutengo webhatiri giredhi lithium hydroxide wanga wasara kumashure kwelithium carbonate musati wapfuura mutengo musiyano pakati pelithium carbonate uye lithium hydroxide uri kuderera zvakanyanya, maererano nemamiriro ezvinhu ekuti lithium hydroxide ichiri kushomeka izvozvi, mamiriro emangwana anogona kuenderera mberi.

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Uye ichangoburwa kukurumidza kukwira kwemitengo ye nickel yakambokonzeresa indasitiri kune bhatiri nemotokari dzemagetsi uye mamwe mari yekukurukurirana.Zvino mumatunhu akakwira mitengo yezvinhu inomhanyisa kukwira kwezvino, iyo lithium indasitiri ketani yemabhizinesi epakati neakaderera inobatwa nei?Zvichienderana nekutsvagisa uye marudzi ese enhau pamusika, kubatanidzwa kwekupedzisira kunotevera:

Zvinoenderana nemitengo yeSMM, kubvira chikamu chechina cha2020, bhatiri giredhi lithium carbonate nzvimbo mitengo yakatanga kuramba ichikwira, uye izvi hazviparadzaniswe nekushomeka kweinokwira lithium nonferrous metal raw materials.China ichada kuunza makumi matanhatu neshanu muzana eiyo lithium raw materials muna 2021, maererano neChina Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.Naizvozvo, nekukura kuri kuita mota nyowani dzepasi rose uye kuchengetedza simba, semukuru wepasi rose anogadzira lithium munyu uye lithium bhatiri, kupokana pakati pekupa uye kudiwa kweLithium zviwanikwa muChina kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma.

Muchiitiko ichi, makambani ekumusoro ave kuburikidza nekugadzirisa kwemigodhi yelithium kudzikamisa kugoverwa kwezvinhu.Tora nhau mumazuva achangopfuura semuenzaniso, Zangge Mining yakaburitsa chirongwa chebudiriro yemakore mashanu, danho rekutanga (2022-2024) kunyika yese, qarhan Salt Lake lithium carbonate kugadzirwa kunoramba kwakagadzikana;Mamicuo Salt Lake Lithium Project yakaiswa mukushanda.Kufambira mberi kwakaitwa mukutora mapurojekiti matsva, uye 1 kana 2 mitsva yemunyu Lake lithium mapurojekiti ane 1 miriyoni matani erithium carbonate reserves akawedzerwa.Danho rechipiri (2025-2027) kuenda pasi rose, ramba uchivandudza zvizere zvicherwa zviripo, zviratidzo zvikuru zvehupfumi uye zvikomborero zvematanho emabhiriyoni gumi, zvinosvika pamwero weboka rekutanga remigodhi yepasi rose;Qarhan Salt Lake lithium carbonate production yakaramba yakagadzikana;Iyo Lithium purojekiti yeMamicuo Salt Lake yakagadzikana mukugadzirwa uye yakawedzerwa nekusarudza mikana;A new salt lake lithium mine.

Ganfeng Lithium yakambotaura kuti Mt Marion spodumene purojekiti huwandu huchakwidziridzwa nekuwedzera.Iyo purojekiti yekuwedzera inotarisirwa kuiswa mukugadzirwa muhafu yechipiri ya2022, uye huwandu hwepakutanga hunotarisirwa kuwedzera ne10-15%.Uye zvakare, iyo yekusangana yemaminerari simba ichawedzerwa, iyo inotarisirwa kuwedzera nekuwedzera 10-15%.Iyo chaiyo chiyero chekuwedzera inoenderana nemaitiro ekugadzirisa mhedzisiro uye chaiyo mamiriro eiyo yekubata ore.

Mukuwedzera, maererano nevari mukati mekambani, chirongwa cheArgentina cheCauchari-Olaroz Salt Lake chakarongwa kuisa 40,000 matani ebhatiri-giredhi lithium carbonate mukugadzirwa muhafu yechipiri ye2022. Zvichakadaro, Chikamu chechina cheMahon Plant chiri mberi kwepurogiramu, kana kuti ichaiswa mukugadzirwa muna Chikunguru.Zvigadzirwa zvakagadzirirwa zvinonyanya kusangana neiyo iripo ye lithium hydroxide.Pamusoro pezvo, chirongwa cheGanfeng Lithium cheMarina muArgentina uye chirongwa cheSonora muMexico zvakare chiri kuvakwa uye chichaiswa mukugadzirwa muna 2023.

Jiang Weiping, sachigaro weTianqi Lithium neGanfeng Lithium, inodaidzwa kuti "double male lithium", akaisawo mazano ekukurumidzira kukura kwegirinhi kwe sichuan lithium zviwanikwa pazvikamu zviviri izvi gore rino.Jiang Weiping anotenda kuti, pari zvino, nyika huru dzepasi rose dzaona kukosha kweiyo lithium zviwanikwa, Chile, Bolivia, Mexico nedzimwe nyika dzakanyora zviwanikwa zvelithium sezviwanikwa zvepasi rose zvakaita seoiri, kusimudzira uye kushandiswa kwerithium zviwanikwa zviri kuwedzera kuomarara. control.Naizvozvo, kumhanyisa girinhi uye inobudirira kusimudzira kweLithium zviwanikwa muChina zvine hungwaru kukosha kuve nechokwadi chekugovera cheni yekuvandudza indasitiri yelithium.

Kwete izvozvo chete, Jiang Weiping uyewo pamusoro sichuan ari zvino lithium zviwanikwa, akati, maererano Bazi re Natural Resources nhamba, Sichuan yakaoma dombo lithium ore vakazvidavirira 57% yenyika lithium ore zviwanikwa, chinzvimbo pakutanga munyika.Seyakanyanya kukura microcrystalline spodumene deposit muChina, Jika deposit muGanzi Prefecture, Sichuan province ine yakakura uye yakakwirira giredhi lithium resource reserve, ine inopupurirwa lithium resource reserves inosvika 1.887,700 tons.Nzvimbo dzakatarwa dzeLithium zviwanikwa muLijiagou spodumene mugodhi muJinchuan County, Aba Prefecture, Sichuan mudunhu ingangoita 512,100 matani, uye zviwanikwa zvelithium munzvimbo yeSzemuzu zvinoda kusvika 520,000 matani.

Nekukurumidza kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakasvibirira, mazhinji mabhizinesi eLithium akapinda muzvikamu zvemigodhi kuitira kudzikamisa mutengo.Gore rino chete, makambani akati wandei, kusanganisira BYD, Zijin Mining, China Mineral Resources uye zvichingodaro, scrambled kuvhura yavo marongerwo mu lithium zviwanikwa.

Munguva pfupi yapfuura, maererano neiyo SMM nzvimbo mutengo unoratidza kuti ichangoburwa mutengo welithium simbi yakaramba ichikwira, kubva munaKurume 15, avhareji mutengo welithium simbi nzvimbo yakakwira kusvika 3.134 miriyoni yuan/ton, 1,739 miriyoni yuan/ton yakakwirira kupfuura pakutanga. yegore, kusvika ku124.66%.

Kukwira kwemutengo wezvigadzirwa zvakaita selithium simbi zvakare kunotyaira mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvakaita sebhatiri-giredhi lithium carbonate uye bhatiri-giredhi lithium hydroxide, iyo huru mabhatiri emagetsi.Paitova nerunyerekupe rwekuti kumashure kwerithium carbonate mutengo uchikwira kupfuura 500,000 yuan/tani, yepakati rwizi bhatiri fekitori mutengo wekumanikidza wakakura, mafekitori mazhinji emumba mabhatiri haatenge zvinhu, haabvume mirairo yekurwisa lithium carbonate mutengo uchikwira.Panyaya iyi, Ningde Times, Eva Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-tech uye mamwe makambani ebhatiri ataura kuti hapana mamiriro akadai, hurongwa hwazvino hwekugadzira hwakajairika, hunogona kuvimbisa kudzika kwemvura.Uye lithium inotungamira bhizinesi Ganfeng lithium zvakare yakataura kuti hapana bhatiri fekitori usatenga mamiriro, mutsara wekugadzira uri mukugadzirwa kwakazara kwakazara kutengesa nyika.

Pamusoro pe lithium carbonate, bhatiri remagetsi mamwe makuru emitengo yezvinhu zvakare akakwira.Ichangoburwa lithium hydroxide mitengo yakakwira zvakanyanya, kudzingirirana ne lithium carbonate, iwo maviri mutsauko wemitengo wakawedzera kuderedzwa.Sekureva kweSMM tsvagiridzo inoratidza kuti, kubatsirwa nekuwedzera kweiyo yakakwira nickel mabhatiri ekupedzisira mabhatiri, kudiwa kwekutenga kwe lithium hydroxide kwawedzera, iyo yese yekugovera uye yekuda maitiro ichiri kunze kwekuchengetwa, ndicho chikonzero chekukurumidza kusimuka kwe lithium hydroxide. mitengo.Nekudaro, tichifunga nezve nhanho iripo yelithium hydroxide uye lithium carbonate mutengo musiyano wakadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma kusvika padanho rinonzwisisika, uye nguva pfupi yadarika vagadziri vakapedzwa kugadzirira, kutevera kana diki zero imwe chete yekuzadza warehouse, musika unotarisirwa kuti lithium hydroxide. kana kuti kunonoka.

Uye imwe nguva yapfuura, kukakavara pakati peRussia neUkraine kwakakonzera kukwira kwakanyanya kwemutengo nickel, izvo zvakaita kuti mutengo wenickel sulfate ukwire nekukurumidza, kana uchinge uchityaira iyo matatu-element precursor mutengo kukwira ne12% -16%.Panguva iyoyo, maererano SMM kukarukureta, muvhiki March 8, nickel sulfate mutengo kuwedzera kwakatungamirira ternary zvinhu mutengo kuwedzera 16,000-25,000 yuan/ton, rinoenderana ternary lithium bhatiri mutengo kuwedzera 31-47 yuan / KWh, kutora 70KWh. mota yemagetsi semuenzaniso, yakaenzana neyemagetsi mota bhatiri mutengo wekuwedzera we2000-3300 yuan mumazuva angangoita maviri!

Uye mukukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yenickel, nickel yakakwira matatu zvigadzirwa zvinodhura zvakanyanya.Zvinoenderana neyazvino LME nickel mutengo wekuverenga, munyu chirimwa kusvika pakati pemitengo yekugadzira, nickel sulfate inotarisirwa kukwira kusvika pa80,000 yuan/tani, mutengo webhatiri webhasikoro uchakwira 7000 yuan!

Zvakakodzera kutaura kuti mutengo we nickel, cobalt, lithium nedzimwe simbi dziri kuramba dzichikwira panguva ino, kudzokororwa kwemabhatiri emarara kuri kukurawo kuita gungwa idzva rebhuruu remwero mukuru.Zvinoenderana nemishumo yenhau, China yakazara simba bhatiri decommissioning muna 2020 yasvika 200,000 matani.Huwandu uhu hunotarisirwa kukwira kusvika pamamiriyoni ematani panosvika 2025.

Tianfeng Securities yakambotaura kuti yekutanga simba remagetsi bhatiri mumusika ratanga kupinda munguva yekurega basa.Inofungidzirwa kuti huwandu huzhinji hwebhatiri remagetsi huchasvika 1.16 mamiriyoni ematani ne 2024. Donghai Securities akafanotaurawo kuti musika wekugadzirisa bhatiri uchasvika 107.43 bhiriyoni yakakunda ne2030.

Kana iri kuwedzera kwemutengo welithium uye kusava nechokwadi kwemutengo welithium, maererano neongororo, padanho razvino, mafungiro ekutenga emabhizinesi ekudzokorodza ndeyekutenga zvishoma, kuchengetedza kudiwa kwekugadzira, uye kuchengetedza iyo mbishi zvinhu hafu yehafu. mwedzi kusvika pamwedzi.

Panyaya yecobalt munyu, maererano neongororo, cobalt sulfate yave mune yakasarudzika-pasi mamiriro munguva pfupi yapfuura.Panyaya yecobalt munyu padanho razvino, dambudziko guru rakatarisana nemabhizinesi ekudzokorodza kuoma kwekutapurirana kwemitengo.Panyaya ye cobalt munyu chigadzirwa chekuwedzera mutengo wemabhizinesi ekudzokorodza, kudiwa kweakadzika ternary precursor mabhizinesi ecobalt sulfate haina kusimba se lithium carbonate, vagadziri vepasi vanogashira mutengo wecobalt sulfate mushure mekuwedzera kwakaderera, uye kumusoro kwerwizi. mabhizinesi ekudzokorodza haana tariro pamusoro pekutapurirana kwemutengo mushure mekukwira kwemutengo wecobalt munyu.

Uye imwe nguva yapfuura, kushanduka kwechisimba kwemutengo we nickel kwakaitawo kuti mabhizinesi ekudzokorodza amise kutengwa kwe scrap rhythm, izvo zvakave nemhedzisiro yakakura pamutengo wemabhizinesi ekudzokorodza.Kuti utsungirire kukwira kusiri kwechisikigo kwemutengo wakadaro, mabhizinesi ekudzokorodza panguva iyoyo akasarudza chimiro chekumirira-uye-kuona kwenguva pfupi uye akagadzirira kuronga hurongwa hwekutenga mushure mekunge mutengo we nickel wawira kune yakagadzikana kukosha.


Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-18-2022